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Mesoscale Discussion 2303
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

Areas affected...portions of northeastern LA and far western MS

Concerning...Tornado Watch 720...

Valid 282117Z - 282215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 720 continues.

SUMMARY...A maturing QLCS with a prominent bowing segment and
several small supercells may pose an increasing threat for tornadoes
and damaging gusts over the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...As of 2110 UTC, local radar imagery showed a maturing
QLCS across north-central LA. Within this intensifying line, a
bowing segment/hybrid supercell structure has recently emerged over
Natchitoches Parish. As upper-level forcing continuances to
intensify with the approach of the upper-level trough, low-level
wind fields have increased on area VADs. This is also evident in SPC
mesoanalysis where a meso low has developed across southeastern AR
with 2-3 mb/hr surface pressure falls.

The QLCS should continue eastward into an unstable and strongly
sheared air mass with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 300-400 m2/s2 of
ESRH. The environmental trends, along with a recent report of a 72
mph wind gust, suggest damaging wind and QLCS tornado potential is
increasing. Additionally, several small supercells east of the QLCS
have developed stronger low-level mesocyclones over the last hour.
As low-level shear intensifies, or storms interact with the surging
line, the threat for tornadoes (including some strong) is expected
to increase within this corridor from northeastern LA into far
western MS.

..Lyons.. 12/28/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...

LAT...LON   33349126 33229073 32979058 32409060 32139082 31519206
            31469267 31849279 33109209 33279158 33349126