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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

Strong westerly/northwesterly mid-level flow - with several embedded
shortwave troughs - is expected to persist across the southern
United States through at least Day 6/Thursday. At the surface,
strong lee cyclogenesis is expected across the Southern Plains Day
3/Monday, followed by a building area of high pressure across the
intermountain west Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday. 

...Day 3/Monday: Southern High Plains...
Enhanced mid-level winds are forecast to overspread much of the
southern High Plains Day 3/Monday, with strengthening surface lee
cyclogenesis promoting strong/gusty downslope westerly winds amidst
near-critical minimum RH values. While there remains some
uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness across parts of the area,
fuels should continue to cure with warm/dry/breezy conditions
tomorrow. Furthermore, the strength of the flow suggests Critical
fire weather conditions will be possible even where fuels remain
only marginally receptive. A 70% probability of Critical fire
weather conditions was introduced where the best overlap of strong
winds, critical RH, and at least modestly receptive fuels is
expected. 
 
...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: Southern California...
Surface high pressure is forecast to develop across the
intermountain west Day 3/Monday and remain over the area into at
least Day 6/Thursday, which will promote dry offshore flow as the
pressure gradient strengthens. The latest ensemble guidance suggest
the potential for a moderate Santa Ana wind event peaking Day
4/Tuesday - Day 6/Thursday with at least some upper-level support.
40% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions were added
across the wind-prone areas of Los Angeles and Ventura counties for
Tuesday - Thursday. While elevated fire weather conditions may
develop as early as Day 3/Monday, confidence in critical conditions
is too low to include Critical probabilities at this time.

..Elliott.. 12/28/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...