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Mesoscale Discussion 2299
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

Areas affected...portions of northern Louisiana into far southern
Arkansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 717...718...

Valid 281624Z - 281800Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 717, 718
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across the remainder of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 717 and Tornado Watch 718. In the near term, the
greatest severe threat will be with a line of storms approaching
from far northeast TX. The severe threat may increase across
southeast AR over the next few hours. All severe hazards are
possible.

DISCUSSION...A QLCS is rapidly translating eastward amid a mainly
elevated airmass in place. However, the southernmost portion of this
QLCS is poised to interact with the warm front and associated
surface-based airmass (characterized by upper 60s F surface
dewpoints and 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE). Damaging gusts are the main threat
with this QLCS in the immediate time frame. However, any interaction
with the warm front may support in an increase in isolated tornado
potential over the next couple of hours, especially over far
northern LA. Latest radar data also shows an increase in
thunderstorm intensity over far southeast AR, where the QLCS will
also move toward by afternoon. As such, a WW issuance may eventually
be needed farther east/northeast of ongoing severe WWs 717-718. All
severe hazards would be possible.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/28/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   33049468 33759289 33979186 33689121 33229115 32769133
            32529211 32469296 32409378 32399432 32419459 33049468