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Mesoscale Discussion 2297
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0838 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

Areas affected...portions of central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 281438Z - 281615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across central portions of
Texas. Severe wind and hail appear to be the predominant threats
with the stronger storms that develop, though a tornado or two
cannot be ruled out. A WW issuance may be needed in the next couple
of hours.

DISCUSSION...The boundary layer is expected to gradually warm
through the morning (given diurnal heating), where upper 60s F
surface dewpoints are in place. 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates and
deep-layer ascent are overspreading central TX in tandem with the
mid-level trough and associated 70-90 kt upper-level jet streak. As
such, thunderstorms are already developing along a Bosque-Kendall
County line ahead of the cold front, and they should continue to
gradually organize/intensify further throughout the morning. 50+ kt
effective bulk shear is already present over the warm sector, and
shear (as well as boundary-layer based buoyancy) should only
increase with time. 

Supercells are possible within this developing band of storms, as
well as with any storms that can develop and mature ahead of the
line, as suggested by high-resolution model guidance. Given
relatively steep lapse rates amid curved and elongated hodographs,
severe hail and wind are likely with the stronger storms. Low-level
hodographs are not particularly large (evident via the GRK VAD).
However, given rich low-level moisture and strong deep-layer
forcing/shear, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially with
any sustained supercell preceding the main line of storms. A WW
issuance will likely be needed over the next hour or so.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/28/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON   30949556 30339580 30059667 29979765 29989837 30239858
            30909832 31469797 31779719 32019619 31929566 31539555
            30949556