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Mesoscale Discussion 2293
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0446 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

Areas affected...north TX to the Ark-La-Tex

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 281046Z - 281215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few elevated supercells with a primary threat of severe
hail may develop before sunrise. Monitoring for a possible severe
thunderstorm watch, north of a probable tornado watch later.

DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms have co*menced in/around the
Metroplex across north TX. This activity is expected to increase in
coverage through mid-morning along a pronounced north/south-oriented
gradient in buoyancy across east TX. With this activity occurring
atop a stable, but shallow near-surface layer, convection will
probably remain elevated to slightly elevated through 14-15Z. The
FWS VWP confirms a nearly unidirectional, southwesterly wind
profile, with the more pronounced speed shear between 3-5 km AGL.
With some strengthening of mid-level winds expected this morning,
this setup should foster potential for a few elevated supercells
capable of producing large hail to around golf-ball size.

..Grams/Edwards.. 12/28/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

LAT...LON   32539740 32889722 33269666 33559588 33699534 33749473
            33739438 33729414 33629376 33309355 32979359 32729412
            32449496 32199588 32089660 32219730 32539740