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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

Several mid-level shortwave troughs are expected to traverse the
southern CONUS during the upco*ing week. These troughs are embedded
in zonal to slightly northwesterly flow, and this longwave flow may
amplify towards the end of the period. The surface response to these
shortwave troughs may result in a few periods of fire weather
concerns through the week.

A strong shortwave trough is expected to move across southern Plains
on Monday/D4. This should result in breezy conditions across parts
of the southern High Plains, and dry downslope flow should result in
low RH during the afternoon. Fuels in the region are at least
modestly dry, and therefore a 40% Critical area has been maintained
in this outlook. Past Monday, a cold front is expected to move
through the southern High Plains, which should keep fire concerns in
the region at bay for the rest of the period.

Across the intermountain west, surface high pressure may beco*e
established by Monday, which would set up offshore flow and
associated drying across southern California from Monday through the
end of the period. Currently, rule-of-thumb pressure gradients
(e.g., LAX-TPH and LAX-DAG) look to be generally marginal for
significant wind concerns, though periods of stronger offshore flow
are possible with low RH, particularly on Wednesday/D6 and
Thursday/D7. Additionally, fuels in the region may be receptive to
fire spread, given little precipitation in the last 30 days. Given
the low confidence in the strength of the surface flow, will hold
off on introducing highlights in southern California for now, though
some may be needed if confidence increases in stronger surface flow.

..Supinie.. 12/27/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...