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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast States on
Sunday.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough over the MS Valley is forecast to continue to
amplify as moves into the southeastern/eastern US Sunday. Strong
mid-level flow ahead of the trough and a deepening surface low will
overspread a moistening air mass from the Carolinas to the Atlantic
Coast. Weak to moderate buoyancy and strong deep and low-level shear
will support a risk for strong to severe storms capable of damaging
gusts and a couple of tornadoes.

...Southeast...
One or more broken bands of storms are expected to be ongoing early
Sunday morning across parts of AL or western GA ahead of the cold
front trailing the surface low through the OH Valley. As the upper
trough progresses eastward, gradual reintensification of this
convection is expected through the early afternoon as moderate
height falls overspread lower to middle 60s F surface dewpoints into
parts of the Southeast and the Carolinas.

Additional storms are possible ahead of the primary band with some
diurnal heating. However, lingering cloud cover and the rapid
low-level temperature advection ahead of the low is expected to keep
cloud cover relatively dense, limiting buoyancy (max of 500-1000
J/kg of MLCAPE). This is especially so with northward extent where
quite limited instability is likely into southern VA and the Mid
Atlantic at the nose of the low-level moisture plume. Still,
relatively moist surface conditions will allow for robust convection
across the risk area with a mix of line segments and a few
semi-discrete supercells given favorable deep-layer shear of 40-60
kt. The strong mid and low-level flow will support a risk of
damaging gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes with the stronger
storms into the evening, before weakening buoyancy reduces the
overall severe risk.

... Upper OH Valley...
Beneath the primary mid-level cold core near the center of the
surface low, differential temperature advection atop low 50s F
dewpoints may steepen low/mid-level lapse rates sufficiently for
marginal diurnal destabilization of a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE.
This may support a risk for a few damaging wind gusts or small hail
with low-topped strong storms given 45-60 kt of low-level flow
beneath the upper trough.

..Lyons.. 12/27/2024