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Mesoscale Discussion 2289
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024

Areas affected...southwest MS vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 270705Z - 270800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Potential for a tornado or two may linger in the southwest
Mississippi vicinity for a few more hours. This potential is
expected to remain too conditional/short-lived for a watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Arcing band of convection had largely weakened last
hour with notable warming in IR cloud tops. Still, the environment
conditionally supports supercell development through about 09-10Z.
The potential for a tornado or two will be most prominent along the
northern edge of the mid 60s surface dewpoint plume, which has its
apex up the Lower MS Valley. This northern extent of surface-based
instability is not expected to expand much farther north during the
pre-dawn hours. In addition, hodograph curvature will gradually
diminish as strong low-level flow beco*es further displaced from the
lingering convective arc.

..Grams/Edwards.. 12/27/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   32729071 32649046 31659033 31319050 31099082 31139130
            31349158 31769134 32589084 32729071