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Mesoscale Discussion 2288
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0853 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Areas affected...Louisiana

Concerning...Tornado Watch 716...

Valid 270253Z - 270430Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 716 continues.

SUMMARY...Some tornado risk continues across Louisiana this evening.

DISCUSSION...Strongly dynamic short-wave trough is ejecting across
the Arklatex this evening. In response to this feature, LLJ is
strengthening across northern LA. Strong low-level warm advection
appears to be mostly responsible for a corridor of strong-severe
convection that is propagating east across ww716. Within this
corridor, a few longer-lived supercells are embedded. One,
potentially tornadic supercell, is moving northeast across Rapides
Parish. Latest diagnostic data suggests this is near the northern
limits of surface-based buoyancy, but very strong shear may allow
this updraft to persist a bit farther downstream before it weakens
appreciably.

While a few supercells may spread just east of the watch into
western portions of JAN/LIX CWA, latest thinking is updrafts should
gradually weaken as they approach the MS delta region.

..Darrow.. 12/27/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   29729416 32159338 32159185 29739266 29729416