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Mesoscale Discussion 2286
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0326 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Areas affected...Southeast Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 715...

Valid 262126Z - 262330Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 715 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across southeast TX as a
broken line of storms approaches the upper TX Gulf coast and the
lower Sabine River.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms within a broken convective line continue
to undulate in intensity with periodic, somewhat well-organized,
low-level mesocyclones across the TX Coastal Plain. Despite
relatively transient periods of storm organization/intensity, a
recent tornado report from the El Campo, TX area indicates that the
current convective environment is sufficient for at least brief
tornadoes. The KHGX VWP continues to show slowly strengthening
low-level winds with 0-1 km SRH oscillating between 150-250 m2/s2,
and this trend is expected to continue through early evening as the
surface low to the north continues to deepen. Organized
precipitation distribution evident in shallow convection in/around
the Houston metro area confirms a favorable low-level wind
environment is in place, and is contributing to STP values between
2-3. As such, the tornado threat is expected to persist well into
the late afternoon/early evening hours as storms push east towards
the coast and the lower Sabine River. Recent high-res guidance
suggests the tornado threat may peak during the 22-02 UTC period to
the east/northeast of the Houston metro towards the Sabine River
when the temporal overlap of buoyancy and strong low-level shear
will be greatest. Watch issuance east of the river may be needed
later this afternoon/evening based on convective trends over the
next few hours.

..Moore.. 12/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...

LAT...LON   28759664 29479601 30249541 31159506 31469456 31479411
            31349374 31179358 30419370 29949381 29729392 29649410
            29529441 29379470 28839550 28669603 28629635 28639658
            28759664