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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND INTO
FAR WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA....

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected Saturday from north-central Louisiana to
west-central Alabama on Saturday. All severe weather hazards are
possible.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough centered across the Texas Panhandle will move
quickly across the southern Plains and beco*e negatively tilted
across the Ozarks by Saturday evening and into the Ohio Valley by
Sunday morning. Rich low-level moisture will start to move inland
across the Gulf Coast by 12Z Saturday and continue to advance inland
through the day as low-level flow strengthens across the warm sector
ahead of the surface low.

...Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley across the Southeast...
A broad warm sector will be advancing inland across the Gulf Coast
states Saturday morning as low-level flow strengthens ahead of the
approaching trough. Initially, the warm sector will likely be mostly
uncontaminated, but thunderstorm activity is expected to increase
through the morning as the low-level jet strengthens. The timing and
location of this morning convection will have a significant impact
on the location and intensity of the severe weather threat on
Saturday. Variance amongst forecast guidance unsurprisingly remains
high given the very progressive mid-level pattern. Despite the
uncertainty on specifics, a broad warm sector with mid 60s
dewpoints, a negatively tilted trough, and a strengthening low-level
jet will support the potential for a severe weather outbreak with
multiple rounds of storms with all severe weather hazards possible.
Given the timing/amplitude differences with the mid-level pattern,
the highest threat corridor will likely shift in future outlooks.
The GEFS is slightly slower than the operational GFS with the EPS
slightly faster than the ECMWF suggesting a most likely solution
somewhere in between. 

Within the enhanced risk corridor, forecast soundings show 45 to 50
knots of effective shear and instability ranging from 1000 to 2000
J/kg MLCAPE. This will support supercells with all severe weather
hazards across much of the warm sector from northern Louisiana to
western Alabama as early as late morning. The tornado threat remains
more uncertain based on the final evolution of the mid-level trough.
A slower trough ejection (such as is shown by the ECMWF) may cause
more issues with destabilization and less favorable low-level
hodographs as the low-level jet ramp up is delayed. 

The severe weather threat is expected to continue after dark from
central Mississippi into western Alabama. Somewhere near central
Alabama the convective intensity will likely start to wane as the
mid-level trough starts to pull away and heights start to rise
across the warm sector.

..Bentley.. 12/26/2024