Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Mesoscale Discussion 2283
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Areas affected...northeast Texas into the ArkLaTex vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 261714Z - 261845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will gradually increase into
the afternoon hours across northeast Texas and the ArkLaTex
vicinity. Large hail to 1.75 inch diameter and severe gusts to 65
mph are possible. A severe thunderstorm watch will be issued soon.

DISCUSSION...A surface low near/just south of the Dallas-Fort Worth
Metroplex will develop east through this afternoon and evening.
Surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 50s F across northeast TX into
the ArkLaTex will increase some in a continued low-level warm
advection regime ahead of the low. Heating will remain muted by
low-level cloud cover and ongoing convection. As a result,
surface-based convection likely will remain sparse, except near the
southern edge of the MCD where a warm front is expected to exist by
late afternoon. 

A mixed mode of scattered, elevated cells and line segments will
evolve with time into late afternoon/early evening. Steep midlevel
lapse rates will contribute to modest MUCAPE amid supercell wind
profiles. This will support isolated large hail up to 1.75 inch
diameter. While convection is expected to largely remain elevated,
if and where stronger destabilization occurs, surging line segments
could produce severe gusts to 65 mph. The tornado risk overall
should remain limited given the elevated nature of storms. However,
across the southern MCD area adjacent to southeast TX, a tornado or
two will be possible if the surface warm front retreats that far
north by late afternoon/evening.

..Leitman/Thompson.. 12/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   32089378 31799410 31549549 31549661 31819733 32519706
            33259660 33559602 33789528 33709414 33209368 32439358
            32089378