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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur across
parts of the central Gulf Coast into central Mississippi and
Alabama.

...Synopsis...
A progressive pattern with multiple embedded mid-level shortwave
troughs will traverse the Southern Plains and Southeast on Friday.
The first of these shortwave troughs, associated with the DY1 severe
weather risk, will be located in the Mid-Mississippi Valley on
Friday morning. A secondary mid-level trough will cross the
Mid-Mississippi/Lower-Mississippi valley between 18Z and 00Z on
Friday. Finally, another mid-level trough will start to sharpen
across central/northern Texas toward the end of the period. 

...Central Gulf Coast into central MS/AL...
A broken line of thunderstorms, perhaps with some marginal wind
damage threat, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
across central MS. The mid-level shortwave trough associated with
this convection will move quickly north and deamplify during the
morning which will likely result in weakening convection by mid-day.
A reservoir of instability will remain across the central Gulf Coast
with perhaps some northward advection into central MS/AL during the
early afternoon as the next mid-level trough approaches the region.
The primary forcing/height falls associated with this trough will
remain mostly north of the warm sector, but a glancing blow could
result in isolated thunderstorms. Lapse rates will remain weak, but
sufficient effective shear (35-40 knots) could result in a few
stronger/more organized storms capable of large hail or some
damaging wind gusts. 

Removed the marginal risk across central Louisiana for the threat of
elevated thunderstorms with the northward advancing warm front late
in the period. It appears the primary forcing associated with the
mid-level trough and strengthening low-level jet will be after 12Z
Saturday.

..Bentley.. 12/26/2024