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Mesoscale Discussion 2282
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1023 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Areas affected...The Texas Coastal Plain into East Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

Valid 261623Z - 261900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe thunderstorm threat is expected to steadily
increase through the late morning and afternoon as the environment
beco*es more favorable for robust convection. Watch issuance is
anticipated in the co*ing hours to address this threat.

DISCUSSION...Open warm sector convection has been steadily
increasing in both coverage and depth over the past hour across the
TX Coastal Plain into southeast TX with a few deeper cells beginning
to reach sufficient depth for steady lightning production. Recent
surface observations show the early stages of surface cyclogenesis
across north TX with an attendant increase in southeasterly winds
and a steady northwestward progression of low-level moisture.
Despite extensive cloud cover, mid-60s dewpoints, co*bined with 7-8
C/km mid-level lapse rates, should promote MLCAPE values increasing
into the 1000-2000 J/kg range by early afternoon. Coincidentally,
the low/mid-level mass response associated with the deepening
surface low should promote increasing low-level SRH and deep-layer
wind shear that should promote supercellular storm modes within the
open warm sector. As such, the expectation is that the developing
convection should continue to slowly deepen and intensify through
early afternoon with an attendant increase in the overall severe
threat. Exact timing of when convection will beco*e sufficiently
intense to warrant watch issuance remains uncertain (though a watch
will likely be needed by early-afternoon), but given the potential
for supercellular tornadoes, including significant tornadoes, a
tornado watch will likely be needed.

..Moore/Thompson.. 12/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON   30019407 29059582 29059627 29169666 29389700 29959715
            30379710 31759498 31789449 31599419 31169395 30799378
            30479374 30259380 30019407