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Mesoscale Discussion 2280
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024

Areas affected...the Middle TX Gulf Coast

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 713...

Valid 250738Z - 250915Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 713
continues.

SUMMARY...Increasing potential for severe gusts is apparent through
the pre-dawn hours along the Middle Texas Gulf Coast.

DISCUSSION...The deepest convection with the coldest IR cloud tops
within WW 713 has been slowly moving eastward across Victoria/Goliad
counties over the past hour. Upstream convection may coalesce with
this leading slow-moving co*plex during the next hour or so. This
would likely result in an accelerating cool pool towards the coast.
Ahead of the cluster, surface dew points remain from 67-70 F and are
yielding MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg per modified 00Z CRP sounding and
06Z RAP forecast soundings. The 06Z HRRR is insistent on upscale
growth with a potential bowing structure approaching the coast
during the next few hours. While severe wind has yet to be reported
thus far, the VCT ASOS recently measured 53 mph at 0729Z. The
potential exists for gusts of 60-70 mph through 10-11Z.

..Grams.. 12/25/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   29099686 29119651 29019610 28749581 28579584 28369625
            28259664 28129695 28159718 28339757 28519775 28769773
            28919720 29099686