Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few locally severe storms could occur across parts of central and
East Texas on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
On Tuesday a progressive upper-level pattern will be present with a
positively tilted mid-level trough advancing off the New England
Coast, a mid-level trough amplifying across the southern Plains, and
a stronger trough moving from off the California coast to the
Southwest during the forecast period. Inland low-level moisture will
result in some instability, adequate for thunderstorms across
portions of the southern Plains. A few of these storms may be severe
across central/east Texas.

...Central/East Texas...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
within the warm air advection zone across eastern Oklahoma. South of
this activity, isolated convection may be possible within a region
of broad ascent associated with a 30 to 35 knot low-level jet.
Instability and shear will likely be too weak for severe
thunderstorms from this activity. However, by Tuesday
afternoon/evening, continued moisture advection and some weak
surface heating should result in greater instability along and south
of the cold front/co*posite outflow across northeast Texas. In
addition to the greater instability, forcing will increase ahead of
the approaching trough and mid-level flow will strengthen. This will
likely result in scattered convection amid weak to moderate
instability and 30 to 35 knots of shear. Some transient supercell
structures may be possible along and ahead of the cold front as it
advances southeast through the afternoon and evening. While the
low-level flow is forecast to be quite weak, particularly across
southeast Texas where instability will be greatest, forecast
hodographs do show significant clockwise curvature in the lowest 1
to 2 km. Therefore,  a tornado cannot be ruled out, particularly
with any stronger/longer-lived supercells which may develop. 

...Northern California/Pacific Northwest...
As a prominent upper-level trough and related frontal band moves
inland, isolated thunderstorms will be possible across northern
California coastal areas and the adjacent Central Valley on Tuesday
morning with the frontal band and later in the day with post-frontal
cellular convection as low/mid-level lapse rates steepen. A more
limited/isolated thunderstorm potential will also exist across other
parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest.

..Bentley.. 12/23/2024