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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 PM CST Tue Dec 17 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado are possible
through mid-day across parts of the Tennessee Valley.

...Tennessee Valley...
A mid-level trough will move into the mid Mississippi Valley today,
as an associated cold front advances southeastward through the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys. At the start of the period, a line of
thunderstorms is expected to be located from central Kentucky
southwestward across western Tennessee into eastern Arkansas. This
line will move eastward toward the southern Appalachians this
morning. Although instability is forecast to weaken ahead of the
line during the morning, the southern edge of the low-level jet is
expected to be over Tennessee where surface dewpoints will be in the
mid to upper 50s F. This should be enough to maintain a marginal
severe threat this morning. RAP forecast soundings in middle
Tennessee at 15Z have curved hodograhps, with storm-relative
helicity near 300 ms/s2 and 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. This
environment should support isolated severe storms along the more
organized parts of the line. The stronger cells embedded in the line
could produce isolated severe gusts and potentially a brief tornado.
This line, along with the severe threat, is expected to weaken by
midday as the stronger low-level flow moves northeastward away from
the region.

..Broyles/Lyons.. 12/18/2024