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Mesoscale Discussion 2269
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1001 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2024

Areas affected...parts of northeastern Oklahoma...northwestern
Arkansas...southern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 160401Z - 160630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A substantive increase in thunderstorm development appears
likely across the Ozarks Plateau vicinity into adjacent lower Ohio
Valley during the Midnight-3 AM CST time frame.  Initially this may
include widely scattered strong storms posing a risk for marginally
severe hail, particularly across parts of northeastern Oklahoma into
southwestern Missouri and adjacent northwestern Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...Seasonably moist low-level return flow is in the
process of veering from a southwesterly to more of a westerly
co*ponent in the 925-850 mb layer across eastern Oklahoma through
southern Missouri.  However, as moisture quality continues to
increase during the next few hours, this is still forecast to lead
to substantive destabilization, as mid-level heights gradually begin
to fall across the southern Great Plains through Ozark Plateau
vicinity.  Large-scale ascent and cooling aloft appear likely to
weaken inhibition sufficiently to support increasing thunderstorm
development in a corridor as far east as southern Illinois and
adjacent portions of the lower Ohio Valley by 08-09Z.

Based on forecast soundings, destabilization across much of this
swath will remain rooted above a generally cool and stable boundary
layer.  However, modestly steep mid-level lapse rates might
contribute to sufficient conditional and convective instability to
support small to marginally severe hail in widely scattered stronger
initial cells, before convection beco*es more widespread.  Storms
capable of producing severe hail may be most concentrated (in a
relative sense) across northeastern Oklahoma into southwestern
Missouri and adjacent northwestern Arkansas, where surface dew
points are increasing to around 60F.  Although destabilization may
beco*e rooted close to the surface across this area (in close
proximity to the surface troughing), guidance suggests that this may
coincide with low-level hodographs shrinking and trending more
linear.

..Kerr/Smith.. 12/16/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   36909531 37979203 36299139 35469436 35769607 36909531