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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2024

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OK
INTO THE OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail, strong/gusty winds, and perhaps a brief
tornado may occur tonight through early Monday morning from parts of
eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks.

...Synopsis...
Early evening water-vapor imagery shows a pronounced shortwave
trough embedded within mostly zonal westerly flow slowly amplifying
across the central and northern Plains states. Stronger westerly
flow south of the main shortwave is expected to expand eastward this
evening, as a subtle perturbation crosses the southern Plains and
moves into the Ozarks tonight. This subtle forcing for ascent will
allow increasingly strong northward advection of a partially
modified Gulf air mass into portions of the southern Plains, Ozarks
and lower OH River Valley ahead of a cold front.

...Eastern OK and the Ozark Plateau...
Weak low-level warm advection is occurring across the ArkLaTex early
this evening as evidenced by showers and several weak thunderstorms
from northeast TX into western AR. This should continue before
intensifying with the approach of the stronger deep-layer ascent
tonight. A 30-45 kt low-level jet will support moderate isentropic
ascent centered over eastern OK and western AR mainly after 03z. Low
to mid 60s F surface dewpoints should reach as far north as the
AR/OK/MO border region supporting moderate destabilization despite
poor low-level lapse rates.

Delayed by the late arrival of modest large-scale forcing for
ascent, convective initiation is expected late this evening into the
overnight hours near the cold front from northeast OK into southwest
MO, and farther southeast within the warm sector.  Initial activity
may be supercellullar, given 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear and
1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE. This suggests the stronger storms may
initially be capable of some severe hail, especially with any
persistent rotating updrafts. Strong low-level shear is also
suggestive of a non-zero tornado and damaging wind gust threat
through early Monday morning. However, this is conditional upon more
unstable near-surface based parcels, which, given the poor low-level
lapse rates and saturated air mass, is uncertain. Overall, the
severe threat with any convection that develops should remain rather
isolated, will maintain level 1 Marginal with low-end probabilities
for all hazards.

..Lyons.. 12/16/2024