SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
[html]SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2024
Valid 161200Z - 221200Z
A quasi-zonal, progressive upper-level pattern will be present this
weekend into the middle of next week. Thereafter, some flow
amplification is forecast to occur. Upper-level troughing will be
the general pattern in the East with ridging over portions of the
West. This pattern will favor cold air east of the Divide with
seasonably warm temperatures farther west. Some colder air/high
pressure will filter into the Great Basin and drive offshore winds
in parts of southern California.
With the passage of successive upper-level shortwave troughs, some
dry and breezy conditions are possible in parts of the High Plains.
Where precipitation remains minimal, locally heightened fire
concerns could develop next week. Given the cooler temperatures
expected, critical fire weather probability will remain low.
Offshore flow in southern California will likely be the main area of
concern for fire weather. The offshore pressure gradient still
appears it will be maximized Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Deterministic and ensemble guidance has not changed significantly in
terms of the upper-level and surface pattern over the past several
model cycles. Upper-level wind support should be minimal. The main
variation in guidance is with the magnitude of the offshore pressure
gradient. 40% critical probabilities will remain for
Tuesday/Wednesday and trends in the offshore gradient will continue
to be monitored.
..Wendt.. 12/14/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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Source: SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/)