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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Monday.

...South-Central States...

An upper trough over the Plains will shift east across the Midwest
and into the Northeast on Monday. The bulk of stronger deep-layer
flow and large-scale ascent will be focused across the Mid-MS and OH
Valley region. At the surface, a cold front will develop east across
the Midwest, while the southwest extent of the boundary drops more
south/southeast across parts of the southern Plains and the Lower MS
Valley. The front should extend from northern MS into central TX by
early Tuesday. 

Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will maintain upper 50s
to mid 60s dewpoints over the eastern half of TX into the Mid-South
and Lower MS Valley. While this will aid in modest destabilization
across portions of southern/central TX toward the ArkLaTex vicinity,
vertical shear is expected to be modest (less than 25 kt effective
shear magnitudes) and large-scale ascent will remain displaced well
to the north. As a result, severe-thunderstorm potential appears
low.

..Leitman.. 12/14/2024