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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited on
Sunday.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will shift east into the Plains Sunday night into
early Monday. As a result, enhanced deep-layer southwesterly
mid/upper flow will envelop the central/southern Plains toward the
Mid/Upper MS Valley. At the surface, a deepening low will track east
along the international border in the vicinity of the northern
Plains and Upper Midwest. A trailing cold front is forecast to move
southeast across much of the northern/central Plains and Upper
Midwest, beco*ing positioned from central MO southwestward into
northwest TX by 12z Monday. 

Southerly low-level flow ahead of the aforementioned front will
allow upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints to spread northward across much
of TX into eastern OK, LA, AR and southern MO. Shortwave upper
ridging for much of the period prior to 03z will likely preclude
thunderstorm activity within the warm conveyor. However, stronger
height falls associated with the ejecting trough will overspread the
southern Plains (though stronger large-scale ascent will remain
focused further north). Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
likely to develop near the southeastward-advancing cold front in the
06-12z time frame. Favorable, vertically veering wind profiles
suggest some thunderstorm organization will be possible. However,
convection is expected to mostly remain elevated in nature given
cool surface temperatures overnight, resulting in little
surface-based instability and poor low-level lapse rates.
Furthermore, deep-layer flow will remain parallel to the front,
resulting in convection tracking to the cool side of the boundary.

Given cool temperatures aloft and midlevel lapse rates approaching 7
C/km in a moderately sheared environment, some small hail could
acco*pany the strongest updrafts across eastern OK into parts of AR
and southern MO. However, overall severe potential appears low/too
conditional to include probabilities at this time given stronger
large-scale ascent focused further north of better low-level
moisture, and expectation for limited surface-based instability.

..Leitman.. 12/14/2024