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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2024

Valid 151200Z - 211200Z

The upper-level pattern is expected to remain progressive through
early next week. Some flow amplification appears probable by Tuesday
into Wednesday. Thereafter, model guidance suggests a broad trough
in the East with a amplified ridge in the West. At the surface, cold
air will move into most areas east of the Divide with each
successive trough moving across the CONUS. Areas of the Southwest
and southern High Plains will likely remain dry during the extended
period. Despite relatively dry fuels in these areas, winds are
expected to remain modest. Ensemble guidance consequently shows low
probabilities for critical fire weather.

As the upper-level ridge amplifies in the West, surface high
pressure is expected to build into the Great Basin, peaking on
Wednesday morning. This pattern would favor offshore winds across
the typically wind-prone areas of southern California. Given the
large scale features involved, in addition to a consistent signal in
ensemble guidance, 40% probabilities were added for Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning when the offshore pressure gradient is
expected to be maximized. At this point in time, upper-level wind
support is expected to be weak.

..Wendt.. 12/13/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...