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Mesoscale Discussion 2265
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024

Areas affected...portions of western NY State and Lake Erie Coast

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 130152Z - 130545Z

SUMMARY...Heavy lake-effect snow is likely to continue for a few
more hours across parts of western NY downstream from lake Erie. The
heaviest snow rates ~ 2-3 in/hr are expected before 4z before the
band begins to weaken and shift south.

DISCUSSION...As of 0145Z, co*posite radar imagery shows a
well-developed band of heavy lake-effect snow ongoing across
portions of western NY downstream from Lake Erie. After slight
weakening earlier this afternoon, a notable uptick in reflectivity
and band organization has been noted this evening. The axis of
heaviest snow has shifted north with rates of 1-3 in/hr moving into
the southern suburbs of BUF. This should continue for a a few more
hours this evening as flow in the lowest 2-3 km remains
west/southwesterly as observed from the 00Z KBUF RAOB. Peak snowfall
rates of 2-3 in/hr are likely in the next 1-2 hours while low-level
flow is best aligned with the lake fetch and remains fairly strong.

Snowfall rates will begin to decrease later this evening and
overnight as the stronger westerly flow weakens with the departing
upper cyclone over the Canadian Maritimes. As this occurs, low-level
winds are also expected to veer to northwesterly, supporting a
southward shift in the band as it weakens. While lake-effect snow
showers are likely to continue through the overnight, snowfall rates
should decrease below 1 in/hr after 6-8z.

..Lyons.. 12/13/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...

LAT...LON   42887906 42977873 42967841 42857834 42767830 42457896
            42347938 42327960 42327968 42657953 42887906