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Mesoscale Discussion 2262
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0939 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024

Areas affected...Parts of western NY/extreme northwest PA downstream
of Lake Erie

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 121539Z - 121845Z

SUMMARY...Very heavy snow rates will continue in the short term,
with some weakening possible by early afternoon.

DISCUSSION...An intense lake-effect snow band is ongoing this
morning across parts of western NY and extreme northwest PA,
downstream of Lake Erie. Recent reports suggest snow rates in excess
of 3 inches per hour in the heaviest part of the band, with one
report of 12 inches over a 2 hour span in Erie County, NY. These
very heavy snow rates will persist in some areas through the
remainder of the morning. In addition, wind gusts of 30-45 kt have
been noted across the region this morning, resulting in occasional
blizzard conditions. 

A notable shortwave trough embedded in deep cyclonic flow is
currently moving east of Lake Huron and approaching the lower Great
Lakes region. Low-level flow response to this shortwave could result
in some disruption of the ongoing snow band by early afternoon, and
short-term guidance (including the 12Z CAMs) generally suggest the
band will tend to drift south and at least temporarily weaken by
early afternoon.

..Dean.. 12/12/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...

LAT...LON   42227920 42117968 41998025 42058034 42178032 42278001
            42427966 42867843 42907805 42687814 42367878 42227920