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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country into
the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A stacked mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be over the central
Plains early Saturday morning before progressing northeastward
throughout the day and ending the period over the Mid MS Valley.
This cyclone will be acco*panied by strong mid-level jet throughout
its base, which will spread from OK northeastward across MO and into
the Lower OH Valley as the cyclone moves northeastward. 

This overall evolution will displace this cyclone and associated
ascent well north of the better low-level moisture, which is
expected to remain confined largely to the TX and LA coasts
throughout the day. Even so, a strong low-level jet is anticipated
throughout the warm sector of this cyclone, and the associated
warm-air advection will likely result in elevated showers and
thunderstorms. Elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the
beginning of the period from east TX into the Lower MO Valley. This
is area expected is shift eastward throughout the day with gradually
diminishing storm coverage. Limited buoyancy should temper updraft
strength, but vertical shear is strong enough to support small-hail
production within the deepest, most persistent updrafts.

An additional northwestward push of greater low-level moisture into
more of the TX Hill Country is possible late Saturday/early Sunday
ahead of another shortwave trough approaching the Four Corners. A
few isolated thunderstorms may occur over the TX Hill Country as
this returning moisture interacts with increasing low-level flow.

..Mosier.. 12/12/2024