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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A progressive upper pattern is expected in the extended, with
several low-amplitude shortwave troughs forecast to traverse the
CONUS. Lead shortwave in this series will likely be over the central
Plains on D4/Saturday morning before then moving through the Mid MS
Valley by late D4/Saturday and through the OH Valley on D5/Sunday.
Another shortwave is expected to follow in the wake of the first,
progressing across the Great Basin and Four Corners on D5/Sunday and
the southern/central Plains on D6/Monday. This wave may phase with
another shortwave moving through central Canada, with resultant
troughing extended from the Canadian Prairies into the southern
Plains by D6/Monday afternoon. Yet another shortwave is currently
progged to drop from the Pacific Northwest/northern CA into the
Great Basin late D6/Monday. Guidance varies significantly on the
evolution of this wave, and its strength/maturity and location
currently have limited predictability.

Moisture return is anticipated across the Plains ahead of each of
these waves. Enough moisture and buoyancy should exist ahead of the
first shortwave to support thunderstorms, as it moves eastward on
into the MS Valley on D4/Saturday and through the remainder of the
eastern CONUS on D5/Sunday.

The most significant moisture return is currently expected ahead of
the second shortwave on D5/Sunday and D6/Monday. Thunderstorms are
likely as the shortwave and associated cold front interact with this
return moisture, although variability within the guidance of the
strength and speed of this wave results in differing areas of
highest thunderstorm coverage. Some severe appears possible,
particularly if the wave is stronger and further south as suggested
by the 00Z ECMWF.