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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Cyclonic upper flow and stable low-level conditions are expected
across the central and eastern CONUS on D4/Thursday as surface high
pressure shifts from the northern Plains into the OH Valley. At the
same time, a low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough is
forecast to progress across the Great Basin and Four Corners before
then continuing into the central/southern Plains on D5/Friday and
Mid MS Valley on D6/Saturday. 

Surface cyclogenesis will likely precede this shortwave over the
central Plains on D5/Friday, with low-level moisture advection
anticipated over the southern Plains as well. The quality of this
moisture advection will be tempered by the strength of a preceding
cold front, with mid 60s dewpoints likely remaining confined to the
TX Gulf Coast. Even so, thunderstorms still appear possible late
Friday into early Saturday along and ahead of the cold front from
east TX into the Ozarks, and across the Lower MS Valley on
D6/Saturday. Uncertainty regarding the quality of the moisture
return (and related buoyancy) as well as general uncertainties
regarding the strength and timing of the shortwave limit overall
predictability of the severe thunderstorm potential.