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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CST Tue Dec 03 2024

Valid 051200Z - 111200Z

...Days 3-6/Thursday-Sunday...
A pronounced midlevel trough will advance eastward across the
Northeast late this week into the weekend, while a cold upstream air
mass infiltrates the eastern half of the CONUS -- generally limiting
fire-weather concerns. At the same time, a broad, low-latitude
midlevel trough will meander over the Southwest through the weekend,
while upstream surface high pressure encourages locally dry/breezy
offshore flow across southern CA. Elevated fire-weather conditions
will be possible during this timeframe, though critical conditions
are not currently expected. 

By Day 6/Sunday, the low-latitude trough over the Southwest will
move eastward across the southern Rockies, yielding lee
troughing/cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains and modestly
dry and breezy conditions. Despite good model agreement in the
development of strong westerly surface winds, marginal RH reductions
and only modestly receptive fuels cast uncertainty on the overall
fire-weather threat.

...Days 7-8/Monday-Tuesday - Southern California...
Medium-range guidance has co*e into reasonably good agreement,
depicting a highly amplified large-scale ridge over the eastern
Pacific, and an amplified downstream trough over the West. This
large-scale pattern will be favorable for a potentially strong
offshore wind event across southern CA -- where a dry antecedent air
mass will be in place. Given above-average agreement in
deterministic and ensemble guidance, 40-percent Critical
probabilities have been added for the wind-prone areas of southern
CA. If guidance remains in good agreement, higher probabilities may
eventually be needed as the details beco*e clearer.

..Weinman.. 12/03/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...