Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Mesoscale Discussion 1605
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022

Areas affected...Mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio River Valleys

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 281700Z - 281900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to gradually increase in
coverage and intensity through the afternoon hours, and may pose a
damaging wind risk. Watch issuance is currently not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Regional reflectivity trends over the past hour reveal
a broad MCV moving eastward across central Missouri. Lift ahead of
this feature is promoting increasing cloud cover over the region.
However, breaks in the clouds across southeast MO to the lower-OH
River Valley have allowed for some diurnal destabilization.
Temperatures rising into the mid 80s, coupled with low 70s
dewpoints, are fostering MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Further evidence
of this trend is noted in visible imagery as shallow convective
cumulus, as well as a few deeper towers with occasional lightning,
continue to increase in coverage. Regional VWPs from western MO are
sampling 30-40 knot winds in the 5-7 km layer in the vicinity of the
MCV, which is supporting stronger deep-layer shear than reflected in
recent mesoanalyses. 

Consequently, the co*bination of improving thermodynamics and
adequate kinematics may support a few strong to severe thunderstorms
this afternoon. Thunderstorms intensifying ahead of the MCV or
developing along a diffuse outflow boundary and/or the
southward-moving cold front will likely consolidate into loosely
organized clusters, though one or two semi-consolidated lines appear
possible, as hinted by a few hi-res solutions. While damaging winds
appear probable, confidence in the coverage of strong/severe
convection remains limited given the marginal thermodynamic profiles
and increasing cloud cover (which should act to slow further
destabilization).

..Moore/Guyer.. 07/28/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   37639263 38489260 38679191 38928986 38858847 38438782
            37588774 36868805 36788938 36909072 37109203 37639263