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Mesoscale Discussion 2244
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2024

Areas affected...the eastern Carolinas into southern Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 282024Z - 282230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Marginal risk for hail and wind to continue with
thunderstorms through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity along cold front extending across
the Carolinas into southern Georgia is ongoing this afternoon, with
a few cells beco*ing briefly organized (with echo tops around 30-35
kft). Overall, storms have struggled to remain organized likely with
weakening large scale ascent and poor mid-level lapse rates. Ahead
of the front, daytime heating has allowed development of SBCAPE
around 1000-2000 J/kg amid deep layer shear around 50-65 kts. A few
of the longer lived cells that can beco*e organized may pose a risk
for hail. As cells beco*e clustered and linearly forced along the
front, a few damaging wind gusts will be possible. This will
continue to be monitored but a watch is unlikely to be needed at
this time.

..Thornton/Hart.. 11/28/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...
TAE...

LAT...LON   31388382 32228228 33628058 35157872 36157700 36387590
            35887550 35497553 35047582 34727628 34447732 34037794
            33627892 33017960 32608010 32278074 31808129 31398194
            31148274 31048346 31068374 31388382