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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST/CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible
Thursday across parts of the Southeast and Carolinas, with the
greatest threat currently expected from late morning into the
afternoon. Locally damaging wind, isolated hail, and a tornado or
two are all possible.

...Synopsis...
A large-scale mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify across
the eastern CONUS on Thanksgiving Day. Within the larger trough, one
shortwave will take on a negative tilt as it moves quickly
east-northeastward from the OH/TN Valley region toward the Mid
Atlantic and New England. In the wake of this leading shortwave
trough, a northern-stream shortwave will move southeastward from the
northern Great Plains toward the Ohio Valley by the end of the
period. A surface cyclone associated with the leading shortwave will
deepen as it moves from the Mid Atlantic toward southern New England
and eventually the Canadian Maritimes. A trailing cold front will
move across parts of the Carolinas/Virginia and the Southeast. 

...Southeast into the Carolinas...
Given the inconsistent signal for robust storm development, a
Marginal Risk was maintained with this outlook. However, greater
probabilities for all hazards may be needed if confidence increases
regarding a sufficient coverage of organized storms through the day.

Strong deep-layer flow/shear (with 60-80 kt flow at 500 mb) will be
in place atop the relatively moist boundary layer across parts of
the Southeast/Carolinas, prior to the frontal passage. Prefrontal
MLCAPE is expected to generally be in the 500-1000 J/kg range, with
higher values possible where stronger diurnal heating occurs. The
resulting environment will be conditionally favorable for organized
convection due to the strong deep-layer shear and sufficient
instability. However, some weakening and veering of low-level flow
is expected with time, as the primary cyclone and stronger
large-scale ascent move quickly northeastward away from the region.
As a result, uncertainty remains regarding the coverage and
intensity of storms along/ahead of the front. 

Thunderstorms may develop or be ongoing during the morning, though
the coverage and intensity of early-day convection remains unclear.
Gradual intensification of ongoing convection and/or additional
storm development will be possible with time, both along the front,
and potentially in the warm sector if sufficient heating can remove
any lingering MLCINH. The relatively modest large-scale ascent may
limit storm coverage, but also potentially allow for a discrete or
clustered supercell mode with the storms that do form. Any sustained
supercells could pose an all-hazards severe threat, especially from
GA into the Carolinas, where stronger low-level flow/shear may
persist through the morning into at least the early afternoon, to
the south of the surface low track. 

The 00Z HRRR/FV3 depict potential supercell development along/ahead
of the front, but other 00Z hr** members show only minimal to very
isolated organized storm development. Other guidance has generally
trended toward a faster frontal passage (as depicted by the
ECMWF/UKMET), which could be less favorable for organized storm
potential due to reduced time for diurnal destabilization. 
Additional trimming of the Marginal Risk from the north may be
needed if the trend toward a faster frontal passage continues.

..Dean.. 11/27/2024