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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
OZARKS/MID-SOUTH TO PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...AND OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging thunderstorm gusts may occur from the
Ozarks/Mid-South to parts of the Mid-Atlantic region, and over parts
of the south-central High Plains.

...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, the co*plex cyclone now over northern ON is
forecast to devolve into a positively tilted, open-wave, synoptic-
scale trough over central/northern QC early in this period.  A
strong, basal shortwave trough -- now containing the primary 500-mb
low of the cyclone over northwestern ON -- will detach from the
cyclone center day-1, then pivot southeastward to eastward to the
upper Mississippi Valley and Lake Michigan by the start of day-2
(29/12Z).  This trough then will accelerate eastward over the Upper
Great Lakes to NY or western New England, nearly in phase with a
nearby/trailing perturbation.  These processes will maintain broadly
cyclonic flow aloft across the Ohio Valley to the Northeast and
northern Mid-Atlantic region.  A series of convectively induced/
enhanced vorticity maxima -- some emanating from previous days'
convection in a frontal belt from the south-central High Plains to
the Ozarks -- will traverse the confluent flow belt leading from
those areas to the Tidewater region.  Meanwhile, ridging aloft will
persist from the Bermuda high westward across the Gulf Coast States,
to NM and northern CA.

At the surface, a quasistationary frontal zone will remain across
the region from eastern NM across the TX Panhandle, parts of OK/AR,
east-northeastward to the Delmarva Peninsula by around 00Z.  This
frontal zone will be reinforced by what is now a cold front located
from Lake Superior across IA to the central High Plains.

...Mid-Atlantic to Mid-South/Ozarks vicinity...
Diurnal thunderstorms are expected to form with greatest coverage in
and near the frontal zone, beco*ing more isolated southward into the
warm sector.  The main concern will be isolated damaging to
marginally severe gusts from water-loaded downdrafts, and perhaps
from briefly upscale-growing clusters.

Rich low-level moisture will be prevalent, with surface dew points
co*monly in the upper 60s to low 70s F, and PW of 2 inches or more. 
Diurnal heating away from persistent cloud/precip areas (from
aforementioned MCV activity and convective residues) will boost
afternoon MLCAPE co*monly into the 1500-2500 J/kg range. Low-level
flow will be modest across this entire belt.  However, mid/upper
winds, ventilating flow aloft and cloud-layer shear will increase
eastward, especially east of the Appalachians on the southern
fringes of the mid/upper cyclonic-flow belt.  Forecast soundings
depict modest low-level hodograph enlargement in the VA to Tidewater
region, and effective-shear magnitudes in the 40-45-kt range,
suggesting at least brief supercell structures may develop. 
However, weak midlevel lapse rates and warm lower/middle-
tropospheric profiles indicate hail risk will be minimal.

...South-central High Plains...
Scattered thunderstorms should develop along and north of the front,
offering isolated severe-gust potential.  Sufficient moisture will
advect into the area on easterly boundary-layer wind co*ponents
north of the front to offset weak midlevel lapse rates for producing
500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, in concert with diurnal heating.  Forecast
soundings reasonably depict inverted-V low-level thermodynamic
profiles, with a well-mixed subcloud layer supporting large DCAPE,
and downdraft accelerations.  Flow aloft will be weak, with erratic
storm motions and localized to mesobeta-scale cold-pool surges
possible from clustered, high-based multicells.  The threat should
diminish through the evening as the boundary layer cools/stabilizes.

..Edwards.. 07/28/2022