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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong storms may pose a risk for severe wind and
hail Saturday from parts of the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi
Valley into parts of the Southeast. An isolated severe storm or two
is also possible across the Texas Edwards Plateau and Hill Country
vicinity.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough will move from the Great Lakes into the
Northeast on Saturday, with an intense midlevel speed max moving
across northern IL/IN/OH and nosing into PA by 00Z. Temporary
ridging will occur over the Plains in the wake of this system, with
moderate zonal flow across the southern half of the CONUS.

At the surface, a cold front will push eastward across the
Northeast, with southern portions of this front trailing westward
across the Gulf Coast states and into central TX by afternoon.
Substantial low-level moisture will be in place from TX into LA and
MS with upper 60s F dewpoints co*mon, and the co*bination of weak
lift and possible outflow boundaries may support periodic strong to
severe storms during the day.

...Ark-La-Tex into Southeast...
A region of storms is expected to be ongoing from far eastern OK
across central AR and into northern MS Saturday morning, and could
be capable of producing strong wind gusts or marginal hail. Any
ongoing activity will likely persist throughout the day as it
propagates southeastward across LA, MS and AL. Winds below 700 mb
will not be very strong, but mid and high level flow will elongate
hodographs and may favor organization with linear storm mode.
Scattered wind damage may occur, along with hail with the more
discrete storms along the line.

Overnight, elevated hail will be possible from southeast OK across
AR aided by theta-e advection with a 30+ kt low-level jet, with
substantial elevated CAPE indicated on forecast soundings, along
with favorable deep-layer shear.

...TX...
A cold front will surge south into central TX during the day as
heating leads to substantial instability with MLCAPE to 2500 J/kg
developing. Lift will be quite weak, but strong heating may lead to
isolated severe cells capable of hail or locally severe gusts,
ending by early evening with loss of heating.

..Jewell.. 04/15/2022