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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated weak thunderstorms may occur late Monday mainly from the
Sabine Valley into central Mississippi.

...Synopsis...
On Monday, an upper low will be located over northern MN, within a
broader cyclonic flow regime stretching from the northern Plains to
the Upper Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a broad fetch of strong westerlies
will extend westward toward the West Coast.

As a leading shortwave trough moves across the Midwestern states and
OH Valley, a surface low will move from Lower MI into Southwest
Ontario, with a cold front extending southwestward toward the Lower
MS and Sabine Valleys by 00Z. Areas of heating will lead to modest
steepening of low-level lapse rates from southeast TX into MS ahead
of the front, also within a moist plume with low to mid 60s F
dewpoints. Lift along this front may be enough for sporadic weak
thunderstorms, with the primary mitigating factor weak instability
and poor lapse rates aloft. Therefore, despite strengthening
deep-layer shear, severe weather is not forecast.

..Jewell.. 11/23/2024