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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado or two will be possible
late this afternoon and evening across the central High Plains.
Isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon from the Ozarks
to the Mid-Atlantic.

...20Z Update...

...Central High Plains...
Overall forecast remains unchanged across the central High Plains,
where storms are expected to develop late this afternoon and into
this evening. Recent visible satellite imagery shows that the
cumulus field remains relatively flat, with a few more hours of
heating needed to erode the remain convective inhibition. Moderate
to strong northwesterly mid-level flow atop low-level
southeasterlies is currently supporting 40-45 kt of effective bulk
shear. A few supercells are expected to develop within this
environment, with large hail and strong wind gusts as the main
severe threat. Potential exists for isolated very large hail as well
as a tornado or two with the more persistent supercells.

...Ozarks into the Mid-Atlantic...
Thunderstorms are still expected this afternoon and evening from
southern MO/northern AR through the TN Valley. The environment is
weakly sheared but strongly unstable, supporting the potential for
multicells capable of damaging wind gusts. Farther east across the
Mid-Atlantic, the ongoing are forecast to persist for the next
several hours while gradually moving eastward. As mentioned in MCD
#1597, the weak kinematic environment will limit the severe weather
threat and minimize the potential for a watch, but isolated damaging
winds appear probable through the afternoon hours.

..Mosier.. 07/27/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022/

...Central High Plains late this afternoon/evening...
A spatially shrinking thunderstorm cluster across southwest Nebraska
should further weaken/diminish as it parallels the elevated portion
of a northwest/southeast-oriented frontal zone across the region.
Otherwise, given visible/surface observational trends, latest
thinking remains that this front and related low-level upslope
trajectories/differential heating will influence at least widely
scattered thunderstorm development by mid/late afternoon, initially
across far eastern Wyoming, far northeast Colorado, the Nebraska
Panhandle, and perhaps as far north as the Black Hills vicinity.

Upper 50s/low 60s F surface dewpoints will support MLCAPE values of
1500-2000 J/kg by mid/late afternoon. While mid-level lapse rates
will not be particularly steep, the moderate buoyancy and relatively
long hodographs (effective bulk shear near 40 kt) will favor a few
south/southeastward-moving supercells by late afternoon. Occasional
large hail and severe outflow gusts will be the main threats, though
a tornado or two may also occur with the more persistent supercells.
There is the potential that one or more southeastward-moving
thunderstorm clusters could evolve this evening, particularly across
far southwest Nebraska/northwest Kansas with severe-caliber wind
potential.

...Ozarks to the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening...
An effective frontal zone remains and continues to be reinforced
from the Ozarks to the Mid-Atlantic. This boundary and differential
heating and possible weak MCV influences will help focus additional
thunderstorm development this afternoon. Strong mid-level
winds/vertical shear will tend to remain to the cool side of the
front, with weaker wind profiles in the unstable warm sector to the
south, with one exception being the windward side of the central
Appalachians where low/mid-level winds are a bit stronger and could
support a few transient supercells. More broadly, a diurnal
steepening of low-level lapse rates with daytime heating and cloud
breaks, in co*bination with moderate to locally strong buoyancy,
will support some threat for isolated wind damage with downbursts in
multicell clusters this afternoon into evening. 

...Midwest/Great Lakes...
Near a secondary southeastward-moving front, mid-level winds will be
relatively stronger with a relatively moist air mass remaining in
place. However, the influence of clouds and some lingering morning
convection continue to cast uncertainty on the potential for
thunderstorms capable wind damage within a zone spanning northern
portions of Illinois/Indiana into Ohio.