SPC MD 1597
[html]MD 1597 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 1597
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022
Areas affected...Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic Region
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 271753Z - 272000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are gradually intensifying across the
southern Appalachians, and will likely pose at least an isolated
damaging wind risk this afternoon. A watch is not anticipated.
DISCUSSION...GOES and regional reflectivity imagery has shown a slow
percolation of shallow convection across the southern Appalachians
and along an east-ward propagating outflow boundary over the past
1-2 hours. Recent data (over the past 10-20 minutes) has shown a
gradual uptick in convective intensity, including cooling cloud-top
temperatures, rising echo tops, and increasing lightning counts.
This is largely being driven by diurnal heating of a moist boundary
layer across the southern Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic
region. Recent ACARs soundings show this gradual destabilization,
and latest MLCAPE estimates have increased to 1500-2000 J/kg.
Further destabilization is possible where cloud cover is more broken
and temperatures can break out of the upper 80s, which should
maintain the recent intensification trend.
Regional VWPs, supplemented by forecast soundings, are generally
sampling 20-35 knot zonal mid-level winds with modest (around 20
knots) deep-layer shear. Wind (and shear) magnitudes generally
increase with northward extent away from the better buoyancy, but
there should be sufficient overlap of favorable
thermodynamics/kinematics to support loosely organized clusters and
perhaps semi-cohesive outflows. In general, the weak kinematic
environment will limit the severe weather threat and minimize the
potential for a watch, but isolated damaging winds appear probable
through the afternoon hours.
..Moore/Guyer.. 07/27/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...
JKL...
LAT...LON 35827742 35557872 35598053 35288260 35528341 36088351
37888221 38698066 38807810 38257713 37157680 36317682
35827742
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Source: SPC MD 1597 (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1597.html)