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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts
of west/northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening and
continuing through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe wind
gusts and a few tornadoes.

...Southern Plains...
An upper trough/low over northwest Mexico and AZ this morning will
move eastward today and eventually eject northeastward across the
southern High Plains late tonight through early Monday morning. A
rather strong mid-level jet (70-100 kt at 500 mb) and focused
large-scale ascent will overspread much of west TX into southwest OK
as this upper trough acquires a negative tilt. This will aid in the
development and subsequent deepening of a surface low across
northwest TX into western OK by 06-12Z Monday morning. A 50-65 kt
southerly low-level jet is also expected to develop late tonight
across the southern Plains, which will aid in the continued
northward transport of low-level moisture. Even though surface
dewpoints are forecast to increase into at least the mid 60s, poor
lapse rates aloft should tend to limit the degree of instability
that can develop across the warm sector tonight.

Even with weak forecast instability (MLCAPE potentially up to
500-1000 J/kg) amid moist adiabatic lapse rates at low/mid levels,
current expectations are for a band of thunderstorms to develop
along/near a surface cold front across west TX from this evening
into the early overnight hours. This band of convection will be
aided by strong ascent associated with the ejecting upper trough. As
the line of thunderstorms encounters somewhat better instability
across west-central/northwest TX, it will likely strengthen early
Monday morning while posing a threat for scattered severe winds
given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level flow. Rapidly
increasing winds and modest veering with height through low levels
will support enlarged hodographs, with corresponding enhanced 0-1 km
SRH (upwards of 200-400 m2/s2). This ample low-level shear should
support a threat for a few tornadoes with circulations embedded
within the east/northeastward-advancing QLCS.

A warm front will extend east-northeastward from the surface low
across west-central/central OK towards the end of the period early
Monday morning (09-12Z). While both low-level and deep-layer shear
will be quite strong, it remains unclear whether sufficient
instability will be present to support surface-based convection and
an appreciable severe threat across this area. Have therefore made
no changes to the northern edge of the Marginal/Slight Risks with
this update.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/17/2024