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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

[html]SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
         
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook 
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 AM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022

Valid 151700Z - 161200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

Critical highlights have been extended further east into the Texas
Panhandle, as current surface observations already show sustained
westerly winds over 20 mph coinciding with RH well under 15 percent.
High-resolution ensemble guidance suggests that these conditions
will continue through the afternoon. Elevated highlights have also
been expanded westward towards the Arizona/New Mexico border, as
guidance shows a more favorable surface wind/RH overlap prevailing
through the afternoon. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below)
for both the southern High Plains and East U.S. remains on track.

..Squitieri.. 04/15/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022/

...Synopsis...
A midlevel speed maximum embedded within broad westerly flow will
cross the central and southern Rockies today. In response, a lee
surface low will develop near southeastern CO and the TX/OK
Panhandles. The co*bination of very dry boundary-layer conditions
and breezy surface winds will result in enhanced fire-weather
conditions across parts of the central and southern High Plains
today.

...Central and Southern High Plains...
00Z soundings across the central and southern High Plains show a
very dry airmass already in place (10-15 percent RH), with poor
overnight recoveries expected. Downslope warming/drying acco*panying
the midlevel speed maximum co*bined with diurnal heating/mixing will
result in widespread 10-20 percent RH across the central and
southern High Plains. At the same time, a tightening pressure
gradient peripheral to the developing lee surface low will favor
15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds. The strongest winds are
expected in the immediate lee of the central and southern Rockies,
where Critical highlights have been added. Fuels across the region
remain very dry (ERCs in the 90th-95th percentile), which will
further exacerbate the wildfire-spread threat.

...Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley...
A dry airmass will be in place across the central Appalachians into
the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley today, where 15-25 percent RH will
be possible during the afternoon. However, current indications are
that the overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH will be too
spatially limited for highlights at this time.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


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Source: SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html)