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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

Valid 181200Z - 241200Z

Fire weather concerns are expected to beco*e more consolidated to
the southern California coast through the extended period as a
strong upper-level trough brings widespread rain chances to much of
the eastern two-thirds of the country. Long-range ensemble guidance
continues to show reasonably strong agreement in the amplification
and ejection of the upper wave currently over the lower CO River
Valley late this weekend into early next week. In the wake of this
system, upper ridging is expected over the western CONUS by
mid-week, but the amplification of this ridge remains somewhat
uncertain with spread noted in latest ensemble guidance and cluster
analyses. Predictability in the synoptic regime degrades beyond
D6/Friday into next weekend, but there are some indications of
widespread precipitation chances across the West and cool,
continental air intrusions into the northern/central Plains.
Regardless, the driest conditions through the extended period should
reside across southern CA into the southern Great Basin, which will
maintain the dry fuels in place along the southern CA coast. 

...D4/Tue to D5/Wed - southern California Coast...
An offshore flow regime remains likely beginning early D4/Tue and
persisting into late D5/Wed along the southern CA coast. A building
surface high is anticipated over the northern Great Basin/northern
Rockies in the wake of Sun/Mon's trough ejection into the Plains.
Long-range ensemble guidance appear to be consolidating around
solutions that depict a 1030-1035 mb surface high, which, while
still unseasonably strong (75th-90th percentile range for
mid-November), would support only a moderate offshore pressure
gradient along the southern CA coast. Deterministic solutions
suggest wind speeds should exceed elevated thresholds, and may reach
critical thresholds for more localized areas that typically see
terrain-enhanced winds. Despite pockets of light rain over the past
24-48 hours, ERCs should rebound amid the dry conditions through
early next week. Higher risk probabilities appear uncertain at this
time, but the 40% risk areas are maintained to address the potential
fire concern.

..Moore.. 11/16/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...