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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of western,
central and northwest Texas from Sunday evening into the overnight,
posing a risk for severe gusts, hail and possibly a tornado or two.

...Southern Plains...
An unseasonably strong mid-level trough will move eastward into
northern Mexico on Sunday, as a 75 to 100 knot mid-level jet rounds
the base of the system. Ahead of the trough, moisture advection will
take place across the southern Plains. By early evening, surface
dewpoints are expected to be in the 50s F across much of west and
northwest Texas, and in the 60s F across west-central and
north-central Texas. Weak destabilization across this moist airmass,
and strong large-scale ascent associated with the approaching trough
will likely result in MCS development Sunday evening. A large
cluster of thunderstorms, with some potentially severe, is expected
to develop in west Texas Sunday evening, and spread
east-northeastward across the western part of the southern Plains
overnight.

The latest ECMWF is moving the mid-level jet into the southern High
Plains faster than other solutions. In response, a cluster of storms
is expected to develop earlier in the event, beginning early Sunday
evening in west Texas. These storms should be associated with the
initial severe threat. Due to a strong forcing regime, convective
coverage is forecast to rapidly expand Sunday evening, as an MCS
develops and moves across the southern High Plains. By 06Z Sunday
night, ECMWF forecast soundings in west-central Texas suggest that
MLCAPE could peak in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear is
forecast to increase into the 60 to 70 knot range, as the exit
region of the mid-level jet overspreads the southern High Plains.
This should be favorable for an organized line segment in
west-central Texas late Sunday evening into the early overnight.
Severe wind gusts will be possible along the leading edge of an
organized line segment. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast
to increase into the 350 to 450 m2/s2 range by midnight, which would
also be favorable for a tornado threat. The current thinking is that
the tornado threat will be mostly associated with a Quasi-linear
Convective System. Hail will also be possible with the stronger
cells embedded in the QLCS. The severe threat is expected to spread
into parts of central and north-central Texas during the overnight
period, as the upper-level low moves into the southern High Plains.

..Broyles.. 11/15/2024