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Mesoscale Discussion 1596
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0845 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022

Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Nebraska into adjacent
northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 270145Z - 270345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A small, but organized cluster of thunderstorms may
continue to be acco*panied by a narrow swath of strong to severe
gusts for another hour or two, across and east of Beatrice into the
Falls City vicinity through 10-11 PM.

DISCUSSION...c*nvection forced by lift along a strengthening cold
pool, perhaps aided by forcing for ascent in the right entrance
region of a strong westerly mid/upper jet, has contributed to the
evolution of a sustained cluster of thunderstorms.  This convective
system is small, but has beco*e well organized, with strengthening
rear inflow (perhaps in excess of 50 kt) to the south of an evolving
lower/mid tropospheric cyclonic circulation.

Activity has been propagating east-southeastward at a relatively
modest 25-30 kt.  If this continues, based on objective analysis and
surface observations, it appears likely to increasingly begin to
process more stable air impacted by last night's prolonged
convection centered to the north of the Interstate 70 corridor.  
However, it is possible that ongoing convection could continue to be
acco*panied by a narrow swath of strong to severe gusts across and
east-southeast of Beatrice, NE into areas mainly near and west of
Falls City, NE through 03-04Z.

..Kerr/Hart.. 07/27/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...to*...

LAT...LON   40659678 40639635 40389534 40049536 39779588 40229706
            40399683 40659678