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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Sunday into D5/Monday...
Extended-range guidance generally agrees that a mid/upper-level
shortwave trough/closed low will move eastward across parts of the
Southwest/northern Mexico through the day Sunday. This system will
eject northeastward as a negatively tilted shortwave trough Sunday
evening into Monday, acco*panied by intense deep-layer flow fields
and significant surface cyclogenesis. Meanwhile, recent guidance has
trended toward somewhat richer low-level moisture return, with mid
to upper 60s F dewpoints spreading into parts of
southwest/central/north TX Sunday night into Monday, with at least
low 60s F dewpoints into parts of OK/KS. 

Midlevel temperatures will remain relatively warm across the warm
sector, but there is greater confidence in at least modest
surface-based buoyancy (with MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg) developing
across parts of west/central TX Sunday night, acco*panied by an
substantial increase in low-level and deep-layer shear. Isolated
severe storm potential cannot be ruled out by late afternoon into
early evening, but a notable increase in storm coverage is expected
Sunday night. Extensive convection may result in a tendency toward a
linear/QLCS mode, but intense deep-layer flow and increasing
low-level shear will support a threat of severe wind gusts along
with some tornado potential. A 15% area has been added for
D4/Sunday, where intensifying flow is forecast to overlap sufficient
instability amid as deep convection increases in coverage Sunday
night. 

Some severe threat may persist from late D4/Sunday into at least
early D5/Monday, as the shortwave and attendant surface low continue
to eject northeastward. Uncertainty increases at this time range
regarding the northern and eastern extent of the severe threat on
D5/Monday, as richer low-level moisture potentially gets pinched off
from the stronger ascent from the ejecting shortwave trough, and
buoyancy beco*es increasingly weak across the warm sector. Intense
wind fields will support some severe-wind and tornado potential
where convection can remain surface-based. There also may be some
potential for renewed storm development Monday afternoon in the
immediate vicinity of the ejecting shortwave and surface low across
the central Plains (as suggested in the 14/00Z ECMWF), though this
scenario remains quite uncertain. 

A small 15% area has been included for D5/Monday, as a continuation
of the threat that begins late D4/Sunday. Depending on
destabilization trends during the day on Monday, probabilities may
eventually need to be expanded to the north and/or east of this
area. 

...D6/Tuesday - D8/Thursday...
Some severe threat could linger on D6/Tuesday in the vicinity of the
MS Valley, though model spread increases substantially at this range
regarding the evolution of the upper-level pattern and occluding
cyclone over the northern Plains/upper Midwest. Otherwise, Tropical
Depression 19 has formed across the Caribbean, with the NHC forecast
track suggesting this system may eventually approach some portion of
the Gulf of Mexico. Uncertainty remains very high regarding any
severe threat with this system into mid/late next week.