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Mesoscale Discussion 2225
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Louisiana...southern
Mississippi and far southwest Alabama.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 132024Z - 132300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should gradually
mature this afternoon. Tornadoes are possible with transiently
organized supercells/clusters. Conditions are being monitored for a
possible WW.

DISCUSSION...As of 2015 UTC, regional satellite imagery showed
several clusters of scattered storms ongoing over the northern Gulf
of Mexico, LA Delta, and ahead of a cold front over the lower MS
Valley. East of the front and a weak surface low, inland advection
of middle 70s F surface dewpoints, and scattered cloud breaks is
contributing to weak/moderate destabilization along and south of a
diffuse warm front. Scattered storms are ongoing near the front, and
farther south into the Gulf along a subtle pre-frontal confluence
zone. As mid-level ascent ahead of an upper trough over the southern
Plains shifts eastward, convection is forecast to gradually
intensify and increase in coverage.

While the stronger forcing for ascent is likely to lag north and
west of the more buoyant warm sector, convection should gradually
intensify as the front progresses and low-level/deep-layer shear
increase. The 12z LIX and area model soundings show low-level
hodographs increasing in size with relatively large low-level shear
(0-1km SRH ~200 m2/s2). Shear profiles are supportive of updraft
rotation with transient supercells or organized clusters. Backed
low-level flow near the warm front could support a risk for 
tornadoes or damaging gusts with the more strongly rotating cells.

Confidence in the overall convective evolution and the magnitude of
the severe risk remains low. With poor low-level lapse rates and
weak buoyancy, storm evolution/maturation is expected to be gradual.
Recent HRRR guidance suggests additional storms are likely to
develop along the cold front and move onshore within the free warm
sector. Numerous storm interactions are possible, co*plicating the
convective mode. Still, strong low-level shear and sufficient
buoyancy for stronger updrafts may support a risk for damaging gusts
and some tornado risk into this evening. Conditions are being
monitored for possible WW issuance.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 11/13/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   29129028 30239112 31179125 32138986 31768846 30418800
            29718874 29068905 29268984 29129028