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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across the
lower Mississippi Valley, posing a risk for isolated severe gusts. A
potential for severe gusts could also develop along parts of the
West Coast.

...Lower Mississippi Valley...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the southern Plains
today, as a low-level jet strengthens ahead of the system, over the
lower to mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist airmass
will be in place over the lower Mississippi Valley where surface
dewpoints will be from the mid 60s to lower 70s F. As moisture
advection continues this morning into afternoon, a pocket of
instability is forecast to develop over parts of eastern Louisiana
and western Mississippi. Thunderstorms appear likely to develop
within this pocket of instability around midday, with additional
storms developing further to the east in the vicinity of the central
Gulf Coast. RAP and NAM forecast soundings in the lower Mississippi
Valley suggest that MLCAPE could peak across southeast Louisiana in
the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range around 21Z. At that time near the
instability max, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be near 30 knots. Some
directional is evident below 850 mb but lapse rates at low and
mid-levels are forecast to be poor. This environment could support a
marginal wind-damage threat associated with rotating storms or
semi-organized line segments. A marginal tornado threat could also
develop if any rotating storms can move through the stronger
instability while remaining discrete. The marginal severe threat may
continue into early evening as a line segment moves into the central
Gulf Coast.

...West Coast...
A shortwave trough is forecast to approach the West Coast today and
move inland late this afternoon into this evening. Ahead of the
trough, strong large-scale ascent will support isolated thunderstorm
development along the coasts of northern California, Oregon and
Washington. Model forecasts suggest that flow at 850 mb will be
around 30 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates peaking near 7 C/km.
This environment could be favorable for marginally severe gusts
mainly after 21Z as the trough approaches the coast. The potential
for isolated severe gusts may continue into the evening, as the
trough moves inland.

..Broyles/Thornton.. 11/13/2024