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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the
Texas South Plains and Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity this
evening, perhaps acco*panied by some risk for hail and gusty winds.

...Southern High Plains...
An upper trough over the Great Basin will advance eastward across
the Rockies today, reaching the Plains late tonight into early
Wednesday morning. Large-scale ascent preceding this feature will
encourage modest surface cyclogenesis across parts of the
northern/central High Plains. Low-level moisture will return
northward today over portions of the southern High Plains, although
its depth and quality will remain limited. It appears unlikely that
convection will develop this afternoon across northwest TX into the
OK/TX Panhandles, as a cap and weak instability should inhibit
initiation.

A somewhat better opportunity for thunderstorms will exist this
evening across this area, mainly around/after 00-04Z, as warm
advection and lift associated with a strengthening low-level jet
increases, and as a surface cold front overtakes the lee trough.
While MUCAPE is expected to remain rather weak (generally 500-1000
J/kg or less), strong deep-layer shear will support organized
updrafts with any sustained convection. Isolated hail appears to be
the main threat, as thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain
slightly elevated. But, some chance for strong/gusty winds may also
exist. The window for severe hail should remain small in space and
time this evening, as convection will likely grow upscale fairly
quickly. Even so, small hail may occur farther north/east into parts
of KS and OK overnight into early Wednesday morning.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 11/12/2024