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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Texas South
Plains and Panhandle vicinity this evening, perhaps acco*panied by
some risk for severe weather.

...Synopsis...
The westerlies appear likely to remain a bit more progressive across
the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into western North America than
farther downstream, from near the Atlantic Seaboard through the
Atlantic.  Within this regime, another significant mid-level trough,
with at least a couple of embedded short wave perturbations, is
forecast to approach the Pacific coast later today through tonight. 

As this occurs, a fairly vigorous perturbation within the southern 
portion of a splitting preceding trough is likely to continue east
of the southern Great Basin, across and east of the southern Rockies
by daybreak Wednesday.  An associated cold front probably will
overtake modest lee surface troughing across central and southern
portions of the high plains by late tonight.  Before it does,
boundary-layer moisture return in a narrow plume emanating from the
Rio Grande Valley, beneath steepening lower/mid-tropospheric lapse
rates, might contribute to a corridor of weak to modest
destabilization by late this afternoon across the Texas South Plains
into Panhandle vicinity.

...Southern Great Plains...
Near the leading edge of a narrow plume of elevated mixed-layer air
forecast to advect north-northeastward through southern portions of
the high plains, models indicate that differential surface heating
may contribute to a strengthening low-level baroclinic zone across
parts of the Texas South Plains and Panhandle by late this
afternoon.  This will probably beco*e a focus for strengthening
near-surface warm advection by early this evening, downstream of the
short wave impulse progressing across the southern Rockies.  This is
likely to coincide with increasing low-level moisture return, which
might include boundary-layer dew points as high as the lower 60s F
near the immediate vicinity of the surface boundary, southward
through the Texas South Plains.

With regard to potential for severe storm development late this
afternoon into tonight, the signal remains muted in the latest high
resolution ensemble output and associated machine learning guidance.
However, given the potential for at least a narrow corridor of
modest boundary-layer destabilization, which may include mixed-layer
CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg, large-scale forcing for ascent
and strengthening shear appear conducive to organized convective
development.  There appears a window of opportunity for the
evolution of one or two boundary-layer based supercells across parts
of the Texas South Plains into Panhandle, before a more general
increase in thunderstorm development ensues northeastward across
parts of Oklahoma and Kansas later tonight.  Rooted within an
increasingly elevated warm advected regime, forecast soundings
suggest minimal potential for a continuing severe hail threat, once
any possible boundary-layer based convective development diminishes.

..Kerr/Thornton.. 11/12/2024