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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

Elevated highlights were introduced across parts of the northern
Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. The latest high-resolution
ensemble guidance as well as a few deterministic members show a more
widespread area of 15+ mph sustained northwesterly winds overlapping
15 percent RH for at least a few hours tomorrow/Wednesday afternoon
along and east of the Cascades. In addition, isolated dry
thunderstorm highlights have also been introduced for extreme
northern California into southern Oregon. Though forcing for ascent
is weak overall, strong diurnal heating and upslope flow along the
windward side of the cascades may provide adequate lifting of a
marginally buoyant airmass to support isolated, high-based
thunderstorm development by afternoon/evening. While storm coverage
is expected to be quite low, fuels are very dry and receptive to
wildfire spread, warranting the introduction of the dry thunderstorm
highlights.

Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track
regarding dry thunderstorm potential in the northern Rockies and
locally Elevated winds/RH in the southern Plains.

..Squitieri.. 07/26/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022/

...Synopsis...
A large-scale ridge will continue to amplify over the western CONUS,
where widespread hot/dry conditions are expected. Along the
northeastern periphery of the ridge, a subtle midlevel impulse and
modest midlevel moisture could support isolated high-based
thunderstorms over parts of eastern ID, southwest MT, and northwest
WY. Any storms that can develop and overspread the hot/deeply-mixed
boundary layer and critically dry fuels could result in isolated
ignitions away from any precipitation cores. 

Farther west over far north-central CA into south-central OR, an
isolated high-based thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out along
the Cascades. However, minimal large-scale ascent and substantial
convective inhibition cast uncertainty on thunderstorm development
-- precluding dry thunderstorm highlights at this time. However, if
storms can initiate over this area, isolated lightning-induced
ignitions would be possible given highly receptive fuels. 

Over the southern Plains, breezy southerly surface winds and low RH
could result in locally elevated conditions, though these conditions
look too marginal for highlights.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...