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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A shortwave trough should exit the Lower to Mid-Atlantic Coast on
D4/Thursday, with amplification discrepancies from D3 persisting.
The 00Z ECMWF appears to be the remaining holdout of the
deterministic guidance for a low-probability severe threat in the
northeast Gulf Coast vicinity. Still, even it suggests low-level
flow should both decrease and beco*e veered through the day, where
rich low-level moisture exists. Instability appears likely to be
meager and overall severe potential appears low.

The next broad mid/upper trough should progress into the West by
D5/Friday. Guidance appears to be coalescing towards two distinct
shortwave impulses evolving within this longwave pattern. The lead
one is progged to track northeast into the northern Great Plains and
then pivot east across the Upper Midwest/south-central Canada over
the weekend. Meanwhile, a basal shortwave impulse should beco*e
established off the southern CA coast. This may gradually move east
over the Desert Southwest and northwest Mexico late in the period.

Guidance continues to differ with the degree of continental airmass
intrusion into the northern Gulf, in the wake of the shortwave
trough departing the East on D4. Overall trends and likelihood of
surface ridging persisting across parts of the Gulf Coast suggest
that returning moisture will probably be of low quality in advance
of the north-central states wave. However, this may yield multiple
days of return flow and an increasingly moist warm sector beco*ing
established over the southern Great Plains by D8/Monday.

SPC GEFS-based ML guidance has trended down to a 2 percent
probability for D6/Saturday, after depicting a 15 percent area
yesterday. It has instead, increased probabilities to 15 percent on
D7/Sunday. Meanwhile, NSSL GEFS-based ML guidance has decreased
probabilities for D7 from 10 percent yesterday to 5 percent today.
Both of these are 5 percent or less on D8, when the ECMWF ensemble 
mean would be more indicative of 15 percent potential. Given the
lack of consistency, a severe weather highlight for D7 or D8 appears
premature but bears watching in later cycles.