Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early/mid evening
across parts of central to north Texas. A couple of tornadoes will
be possible, along with isolated hail and damaging winds.

...Texas...

Strong upper trough, currently located over the southern Rockies,
will begin to eject northeast later today as 500mb speed max
translates across far West TX into the central High Plains. This
upper low will progress into northeast CO/northwest KS by the end of
the period. This evolution will result in 150-180m, 12hr height
falls across the central High Plains, but negligible changes will be
noted south of the Red River where severe probabilities are
currently expressed. Boundary layer is quite stable across the High
Plains into western OK/northwest TX. As a result, surface low will
struggle as it is drawn north into the region of stronger dynamics,
late in the period. Strong LLJ will also focus well north of the
more buoyant air mass, primarily across northern OK into western KS.
In the absence of stronger forcing, the primary mechanism for
thunderstorm development across the warm sector will be weak frontal
convergence acting on an environment that is moist and minimally
inhibited. Some weak warm advection may also contribute to scattered
convection atop the cooler boundary layer. 

Considerable amount of convection is currently ongoing from the
Edwards Plateau, north into southern KS. This activity will
gradually propagate east and should be ongoing at the start of the
period. Forecast soundings suggest modest buoyancy will evolve
across central TX into the southern portions of north-central TX by
mid afternoon. Some supercell threat can be expected as deep-layer
shear will be more than adequate for sustaining deep, rotating
updrafts. Given the lack of large-scale support, severe coverage may
remain somewhat isolated. Hail, wind, and perhaps a tornado or two
can be expected with this activity.

..Darrow/Thornton.. 11/08/2024